Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.