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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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