Daily Murders in Mexico Fall 37% During President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The mean count of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent administrative statistics. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide figures may not point to improved countrywide safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This data was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it could obscure periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the daily average renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.