A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
